Could primary election change balance of power in Montpelier?

MONTPELIER, Vt. (WCAX) – Vermont’s primary election on Tuesday will set the stage for who will be on the ballot in November, including potentially shifting the balance of power at the Statehouse.

Partisan friction between Republican Governor Phil Scott and the Democratic supermajority in the Legislature has heated up in recent years, with Democrats overriding six vetos this year.

“I happen to think we’re seeing a bit of a pendulum swing here,” said Dennise Casey, a Vermont political consultant.

Democrats secured 104 seats in the House and 22 in the Senate last election. But with a big turnover in the upper chamber, more moderate candidates who may align with the governor could end up on the November ballot.

In the Chittenden Central District, longtime TV anchor Stewart Ledbetter, a moderate Democrat, is challenging three incumbents –Senators Martine Gulick, Tanya Vyhovsky, and Phil Baruth.

Casey and other political observers are keeping a close eye on races to see if candidates who may back up Phil Scott on vetoes will win on Tuesday. “A handful of moderate centrist candidates running and leaning into messaging around the need for more affordable housing, tax focus, and the need to grow the economy,” Casey said.

Vermont has open primaries, where any candidate can get on the ballot regardless of party affiliation. Democrats say they’re confident they’ve built a strong ticket of candidates and that their supermajority in the House and Senate will hold. “We’ve put ourselves in a good position to retain supermajorities in both chambers so we can pass a legislative agenda that brings Vermont into the future,” said Democratic party director Jim Dandeneau.

But Vermont GOP chair Paul Dame says even if more moderate Democrats are elected, Vermonters won’t see a more moderate agenda in Montpelier without more Republicans in power. “If Republicans remain in the position we’ve been in — 10 seats away from override protection in the house — then I wouldn’t expect Democrats to vote any different regardless of the primary,” he said.

As of July, there were 498,853 registered voters in Vermont. In the 2022 midterm primaries, combined turnout was about 27% of registered voters. About 34% of votes in that election were cast before primary day. As of Wednesday, a total of 14,871 ballots had been cast before primary day.