BURLINGTON, Vt. (WCAX) – A year after destructive flooding rocked Vermont, two more devastating floods hit within weeks of each other. Now, many Vermonters are left wondering whether this is the new normal. Experts say as time goes on, we could see more disasters like this, but anticipating them can be complicated.
On the night of July 29, Pete Banacos with the National Weather Service in Burlington, watched a storm creep across his screen.
“We’re monitoring rainfall rates, we’re monitoring soil moistures, we have flash flood guidance, so we know how much rain we need before we start to be concerned with flash flooding,” said Banacos.
Overnight, areas of the Northeast Kingdom were pummeled by historic rainfall. St. Johnsbury sustained a record 8 inches. Banacos says most storms are predictable, but this one was an upper-level, low-pressure system that was hard to pin down. That gave his team just hours to alert emergency services.
“The warnings were quite good, but the ability to provide notification in our forecasts a day or two in advance, that was more difficult for us,” he said.
Unpredictability is the name of the game when it comes to recent flooding. Distinguished professor and Vermont State Climatologist Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux says it’s hard to know how much rain is coming and exactly where it will touch down.
“When it comes to the atmosphere, when it comes to the entire water cycle, things are changing in ways that we don’t particularly know right now,” said Dupigny-Giroux.
Looking at historic floods throughout Vermont’s history, Dupigny-Giroux says one thing is clear: current storms are getting more intense.
“As our climate changes, there’s more moisture in the air to actually fall out as rain. Whenever you have more rain falling in a shorter amount of time, then that means that water has to go somewhere,” she said.
Those intense storms can get trapped between Vermont mountains, forcing their full effects onto Vermonters on the ground.
“The rivers and the roads are in the bottoms of these V-shaped valleys. So all of this comes together because it sets up the conditions for some of our historic downtown’s flooding,” said Dupigny-Giroux.
Banacos say it’s hard to know if this weather is the new normal, but heavier rainfall combined with already saturated soil and high waters put communities at higher risk.
“That doesn’t mean we’re going to keep up with the frantic pace that we’ve had here recently. But overall, the climate in Vermont is becoming wetter with time,” said Banacos.
Banacos warns Vermonters should be especially vigilant throughout August, saying it won’t take much rainfall to trigger more flooding.